Today 7:10 AM

Iran Major Developments

Major development — Houthis seize Mocha, threatening a second global oil chokepoint

There is one consequential new development this morning, September 10.

Confirmed: Iran-aligned Houthi forces have seized the strategic Yemeni port city of Mocha, according to four Yemeni government military sources cited by Reuters. Houthi forces are also attacking the Hanish Islands, while Saudi-backed government forces are retreating south toward Dhubab, directly beside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The next geographical targets matter enormously: Dhubab and Perim Island sit directly astride the Bab el-Mandeb approaches. Reuters reports that control of those positions is considered key to gaining effective control over the strait.

Why this matters: Until now, our primary energy concern has been Iran's ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi advance creates the possibility that an Iran-aligned force could simultaneously exert much greater pressure on Bab el-Mandeb—the southern entrance to the Red Sea and another critical global oil and trade route.

That means the strategic danger is potentially becoming:

Iran/Hormuz in the east + Houthis/Bab el-Mandeb in the west.

That is a materially worse position for Saudi Arabia and international shipping because the Red Sea route is particularly important when Hormuz traffic is already severely disrupted. Reuters describes the Yemen fighting as a second theater of the Iran conflict threatening global energy supplies.

There is also an important diplomatic warning attached to this. Pakistan has delivered a Saudi message directly to Tehran demanding that Iran restrain the Houthis. Iranian officials responded that Iran does not control them. Reuters separately reports, however, that two Iranian sources say Tehran encouraged the recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised additional weapons and funding. That latter assertion should still be treated as sourced reporting rather than an independently established fact.

Pakistan clarified today that no Pakistani military intervention is currently being discussed, despite its collective-defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Bottom line: Mocha's fall is the significant new event. The Houthis do not yet control Bab el-Mandeb, so I would not describe the strait as closed or captured. But they have made a major territorial advance toward positions from which they could exert substantially greater control over it. If Dhubab or Perim Island falls, I would consider that another major strategic threshold.

Reuters — Houthi seizure of Mocha and advance toward Bab el-Mandeb