Today 5:45 AM

Yes. The biggest update overnight is diplomatic, not military—and it is encouraging.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff says the United States and Iran held lengthy negotiations throughout Tuesday at the U.N. through mediators who shuttled between the two delegations. He described the completed round as potentially “constructive and promising” and said the mediators will continue working. Iran has separately confirmed the Qatari-mediated discussions and reiterated its core conditions: ending the fighting, ending the U.S. naval blockade/economic pressure, and releasing frozen Iranian assets.

One correction to my last update is important: I was too definite when I said U.S. and Iranian officials had actually met face-to-face. Trump described it that way, but Witkoff's own account says the talks were conducted through mediators. So a direct U.S.–Iran meeting remains unclear, while the extensive negotiations themselves are confirmed.

There is also a meaningful economic signal. Brent crude is around $99/barrel, near a two-week low, as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has restarted, Gulf supplies improve, and markets put more weight on the possibility of a negotiated settlement.

What has not happened overnight: I find no confirmed major new U.S. strike on Iran, major Iranian attack, leadership change, ceasefire, or agreement reopening Hormuz.

So my read this morning is: the situation has moved modestly toward de-escalation. For the first time in a while, the most consequential overnight development was hours of substantive diplomacy rather than another round of missiles.