Yes. There has been an important development since I told you about the planned Saudi offensive earlier today, but it points in two directions at once.
The military preparations are still real. Reuters' reporting remains that Saudi Arabia is considering an offensive led by Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, potentially involving more than 100,000 troops, with Saudi air support. Options range from a focused operation to retake the Bab el-Mandeb area to a much broader multi-front campaign. U.S. intelligence support is already being provided, but no final launch order has been publicly confirmed. �
Reuters +1
However, Iran has now made a move that could potentially prevent that offensive. Pakistan's foreign minister says Tehran has proposed that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan try political negotiations with the Houthis instead of “kinetic action.” Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan will hold an emergency meeting in Riyadh next week specifically to consider that option. �
Reuters
There's a particularly interesting part: Pakistan says Iran is distancing itself from both the Houthis and Iraqi militias, and says President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi want the Houthi confrontation resolved. But Pakistan emphasizes that there is no written Iranian proposal yet—it's essentially an idea being floated diplomatically. �
Reuters
Meanwhile, the fighting hasn't stopped. Yemen is experiencing what the UN World Food Programme describes as the most serious Saudi-Houthi escalation since the 2022 truce, with tens of thousands displaced. �
Reuters
Where I think this stands tonight: Saudi Arabia appears to be keeping both doors open. It's preparing the military option while giving Iran's diplomatic proposal a chance to be discussed. The key event now is that Riyadh meeting. If Saudi Arabia rejects political engagement and orders the Bab el-Mandeb offensive, that would be a major expansion of this war. If Iran can actually persuade the Houthis to negotiate and relinquish some of their leverage over Bab el-Mandeb, it could instead become a significant de-escalation.
At this moment, the large Saudi offensive has not begun. That's the most important distinction.
Reuters — Saudi preparations for the Houthi offensive⁠�
Reuters — Iran proposes political engagement with the Houthis⁠�